Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2–4 Havířov: Result & Stats

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Havířov

4/30/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 20Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál27%

×Draw21%

Havířov51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj Olympia BruntálExpected goals in this matchHavířov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.10

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.49

Havířov

2.10

Havířov creates 41% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

1.36

creates per match

2.01

2.19

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.36

Havířov

2.01

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.19

Havířov

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Havířov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw

49%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Havířov

79%

Draw or Havířov

73%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

12%

Havířov wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

77%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

44%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

19%

Havířov 1+ goals

88%

Havířov 2+ goals

62%

Havířov 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

35%

Havířov (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Havířov attack 2.01 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

27%

level

21%

Havířov scores more

51%

Havířov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff