Havířov 1–1 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál: Result & Stats

Havířov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

9/18/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Havířov69%

×Draw17%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavířovExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.08

Havířov

2.54

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.08

Havířov creates 135% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

2.38

creates per match

0.89

1.27

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Havířov

2.38

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Havířov

1.27

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Havířov or draw

86%

Havířov or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

83%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

31%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+

47%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals

92%

Havířov 2+ goals

72%

Havířov 3+ goals

46%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

66%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

29%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)

83%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.54

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Havířov scores more

69%

level

17%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

14%

Havířov at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff