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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
8/20/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 3Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál28%
×Draw22%
Bospor Bohumín50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.46
Bospor Bohumín
2.00

Bospor Bohumín creates 37% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
50%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Bospor Bohumín
78%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
72%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
13%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
77%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
43%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
18%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
86%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
59%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
36%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
28%
level
22%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
50%

Bospor Bohumín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3 – 1 Bospor Bohumín

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál beat Bospor Bohumín 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.