Bospor Bohumín 0–0 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Bospor Bohumín

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

4/9/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bospor Bohumín69%

×Draw17%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bospor BohumínExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.99

Bospor Bohumín

2.45

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.99

Bospor Bohumín creates 147% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

2.19

creates per match

0.89

1.09

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín

2.19

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín

1.09

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw

86%

Bospor Bohumín or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

83%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

31%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+

47%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals

91%

Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals

70%

Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals

44%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

63%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

26%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)

84%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.45

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more

69%

level

17%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

14%

Bospor Bohumín at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff