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Slavoj Mýto vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
FT
6 – 2
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
10/13/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 10Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto64%
×Draw18%
Hvězda Cheb18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
2.45
Hvězda Cheb
1.23

Slavoj Mýto creates 99% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
82%
Slavoj Mýto or Hvězda Cheb
82%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
36%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
42%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
91%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
70%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
44%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
71%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
35%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
78%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.45

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
64%
level
18%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
18%

Slavoj Mýto at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Mýto vs Hvězda Cheb

Slavoj Mýto beat Hvězda Cheb 6-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto).