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Hvězda Cheb vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
CANC
15:00
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
5/22/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hvězda Cheb52%
×Draw22%
Slavoj Mýto25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
1.93
Slavoj Mýto
1.28

Hvězda Cheb creates 51% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
75%
Hvězda Cheb or Slavoj Mýto
78%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
48%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
30%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
85%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
57%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
30%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
37%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
67%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
52%
level
22%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
25%

Hvězda Cheb at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hvězda Cheb host Slavoj Mýto

May 22, 2021: Hvězda Cheb take on Slavoj Mýto in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hvězda Cheb host Slavoj Mýto at Stadion Lokomotiva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.