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Slavoj Mýto vs Doubravka — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Doubravka
Doubravka
5/22/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 26Slavoj Mýto - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto52%
×Draw22%
Doubravka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
1.93
Doubravka
1.30

Slavoj Mýto creates 48% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Doubravka
1.27

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Doubravka
1.75

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Doubravka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
74%
Slavoj Mýto or Doubravka
78%
Draw or Doubravka
48%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
30%
Doubravka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
85%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
57%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
30%
Doubravka 1+ goals
73%
Doubravka 2+ goals
37%
Doubravka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
67%
Doubravka (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
52%
level
22%
Doubravka scores more
26%

Slavoj Mýto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Mýto 0 – 1 Doubravka

Doubravka beat Slavoj Mýto 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Slavoj Mýto - tráva in Mýto.