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Doubravka vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
CANC
11:30
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
4/10/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 11Doubravka UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Doubravka62%
×Draw19%
Slavoj Mýto19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
2.32
Slavoj Mýto
1.19

Doubravka creates 95% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 22 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
81%
Doubravka or Slavoj Mýto
81%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
38%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
40%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
90%
Doubravka 2+ goals
67%
Doubravka 3+ goals
40%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
70%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
33%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
77%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.32

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Doubravka scores more
62%
level
19%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
19%

Doubravka at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Doubravka vs Slavoj Mýto — Match Preview

Doubravka face Slavoj Mýto on April 10, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Doubravka host Slavoj Mýto at Doubravka UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.