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Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
5/31/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 30Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov35%
×Draw23%
Sokol Lom42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.56
Sokol Lom
1.75

Sokol Lom creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.65
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.47
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Český Krumlov ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Český Krumlov or draw
58%
Slavoj Český Krumlov or Sokol Lom
77%
Draw or Sokol Lom
65%

Winning margin

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
17%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
79%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
46%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
21%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
52%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
45%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Český Krumlov at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.65 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
35%
level
23%
Sokol Lom scores more
42%

Sokol Lom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Sokol Lom

Slavoj Český Krumlov beat Sokol Lom 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov in Český Krumlov.