Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
10/26/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 12Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov64%
×Draw20%
Slavia Vejprnice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Český Krumlov
2.16
Slavia Vejprnice
1.00

Slavoj Český Krumlov creates 116% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.65
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.47
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Český Krumlov ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slavoj Český Krumlov or draw
83%
Slavoj Český Krumlov or Slavia Vejprnice
80%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
36%

Winning margin

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
40%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
88%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
63%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
36%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
63%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
26%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
79%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Český Krumlov at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.65 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.16

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
64%
level
20%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
17%

Slavoj Český Krumlov at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavoj Český Krumlov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Slavia Vejprnice

Slavoj Český Krumlov beat Slavia Vejprnice 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov in Český Krumlov.