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Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
3/11/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov31%
×Draw24%
Aritma Praha46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.37
Aritma Praha
1.73

Aritma Praha creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.65
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.47
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Český Krumlov ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slavoj Český Krumlov or draw
54%
Slavoj Český Krumlov or Aritma Praha
76%
Draw or Aritma Praha
69%

Winning margin

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
13%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
75%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
40%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
16%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
82%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
52%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
40%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Český Krumlov at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.65 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
31%
level
24%
Aritma Praha scores more
46%

Aritma Praha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Aritma Praha

Aritma Praha beat Slavoj Český Krumlov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov in Český Krumlov.