Aritma Praha 0–0 Slavoj Český Krumlov

Aritma Praha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavoj Český Krumlov

8/31/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aritma Praha60%

×Draw20%

Slavoj Český Krumlov19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aritma PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Český Krumlov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.15

Aritma Praha

2.17

Slavoj Český Krumlov

1.15

Aritma Praha creates 89% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

2.13

creates per match

1.63

0.67

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Aritma Praha

2.13

Slavoj Český Krumlov

1.63

allows per match

Aritma Praha

0.67

Slavoj Český Krumlov

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Slavoj Český Krumlov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw

81%

Aritma Praha or Slavoj Český Krumlov

80%

Draw or Slavoj Český Krumlov

40%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+

37%

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals

89%

Aritma Praha 2+ goals

64%

Aritma Praha 3+ goals

36%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals

68%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals

32%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)

76%

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.63 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aritma Praha scores more

60%

level

20%

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more

19%

Aritma Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Slavoj Český Krumlov

Aritma Praha and Slavoj Český Krumlov drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.

Aritma Praha vs Slavoj Český Krumlov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Slavoj Český Krumlov