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Slavia Vejprnice vs Králův Dvůr — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
5/10/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Stadion Slavia Vejprnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice10%
×Draw15%
Králův Dvůr75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Vejprnice
0.90
Králův Dvůr
2.73

Králův Dvůr creates 203% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice
1.00
Králův Dvůr
2.80

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice
2.67
Králův Dvůr
0.80

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw
25%
Slavia Vejprnice or Králův Dvůr
85%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
90%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
3%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
59%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
23%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
6%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
93%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
75%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
12%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + Králův Dvůr defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Králův Dvůr attack 2.80 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more
10%
level
15%
Králův Dvůr scores more
75%

Králův Dvůr at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Slavia Vejprnice 2–4 Králův Dvůr

Králův Dvůr beat Slavia Vejprnice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Slavia Vejprnice in Vejprnice.