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Králův Dvůr vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
10/12/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Králův Dvůr84%
×Draw11%
Slavia Vejprnice5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
2.97
Slavia Vejprnice
0.60

Králův Dvůr creates 395% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
3.27
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
0.67
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
95%
Králův Dvůr or Slavia Vejprnice
89%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
16%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
65%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
95%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
79%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
56%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
45%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
12%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
94%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 3.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 3.27 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.97

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Králův Dvůr defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
84%
level
11%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
5%

Králův Dvůr at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Králův Dvůr 3–0 Slavia Vejprnice

Králův Dvůr beat Slavia Vejprnice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.