Slavia Vejprnice 1–3 Hořovicko: Result & Stats

Slavia Vejprnice

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hořovicko

6/7/2025

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Stadion Slavia Vejprnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice29%

×Draw22%

Hořovicko49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia VejprniceExpected goals in this matchHořovicko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.97

Slavia Vejprnice

1.46

Hořovicko

1.97

Hořovicko creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

1.27

2.67

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice

1.00

Hořovicko

1.27

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice

2.67

Hořovicko

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

Hořovicko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw

51%

Slavia Vejprnice or Hořovicko

78%

Draw or Hořovicko

71%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+

13%

Hořovicko wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals

77%

Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals

43%

Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals

18%

Hořovicko 1+ goals

86%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

58%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)

37%

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more

29%

level

22%

Hořovicko scores more

49%

Hořovicko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff