Hořovicko 1–0 Slavia Vejprnice: Result & Stats

Hořovicko

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Vejprnice

11/9/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14Hořovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hořovicko60%

×Draw21%

Slavia Vejprnice19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HořovickoExpected goals in this matchSlavia Vejprnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.04

Hořovicko

2.04

Slavia Vejprnice

1.04

Hořovicko creates 96% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.53

1.55

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Hořovicko

1.40

Slavia Vejprnice

0.53

allows per match

Hořovicko

1.55

Slavia Vejprnice

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw

81%

Hořovicko or Slavia Vejprnice

79%

Draw or Slavia Vejprnice

40%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+

37%

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals

87%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

60%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

33%

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals

65%

Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals

28%

Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

76%

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hořovicko scores more

60%

level

21%

Slavia Vejprnice scores more

19%

Hořovicko at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff