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Slavia Vejprnice vs Hluboka nad Vltavou — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hluboka nad Vltavou
Hluboka nad Vltavou
3/15/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Vejprnice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice22%
×Draw22%
Hluboka nad Vltavou56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Vejprnice
1.17
Hluboka nad Vltavou
1.97

Hluboka nad Vltavou creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice
1.00
Hluboka nad Vltavou
1.27

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice
2.67
Hluboka nad Vltavou
1.33

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par
Hluboka nad Vltavou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

Hluboka nad Vltavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw
44%
Slavia Vejprnice or Hluboka nad Vltavou
78%
Draw or Hluboka nad Vltavou
78%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
9%
Hluboka nad Vltavou wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
11%
Hluboka nad Vltavou 1+ goals
86%
Hluboka nad Vltavou 2+ goals
58%
Hluboka nad Vltavou 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
29%
Hluboka nad Vltavou (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Hluboka nad Vltavou away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + Hluboka nad Vltavou defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hluboka nad Vltavou attack 1.27 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more
22%
level
22%
Hluboka nad Vltavou scores more
56%

Hluboka nad Vltavou at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hluboka nad Vltavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Slavia Vejprnice 0–1 Hluboka nad Vltavou

Hluboka nad Vltavou beat Slavia Vejprnice 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Vejprnice UMT in Vejprnice.