Slavia Sofia 0–1 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets

9/18/2024

First League · Round 2Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Slavia Sofia27%

×Draw26%

Ludogorets47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.47

Slavia Sofia

1.03

Ludogorets

1.47

Ludogorets creates 43% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 133 away

1.24

creates per match

1.83

1.10

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.24

Ludogorets

1.83

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.10

Ludogorets

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

53%

Slavia Sofia or Ludogorets

74%

Draw or Ludogorets

73%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

10%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

64%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

28%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

9%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

77%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

43%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

36%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

27%

level

26%

Ludogorets scores more

47%

Ludogorets at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff