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Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
11/27/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Ludogorets63%
×Draw22%
Slavia Sofia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.86
Slavia Sofia
0.78

Ludogorets creates 138% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 138 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
85%
Ludogorets or Slavia Sofia
78%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
37%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
37%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
84%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
55%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
28%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
54%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
18%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
81%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.86

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ludogorets scores more
63%
level
22%
Slavia Sofia scores more
15%

Ludogorets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat Ludogorets 3-2 in First League on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.