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Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia — First League 2026

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
10/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Slavia Sofia46%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Sofia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.42
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.04

Slavia Sofia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 88 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
1.24
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.98

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.10
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.60

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
72%
Slavia Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia
54%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
22%
Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
41%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
62%
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.98 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
46%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
28%

Slavia Sofia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat Lokomotiv Sofia 2-0 in First League on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.