Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Slavia Sofia

4/6/2025

First League · Round 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia39%

×Draw28%

Slavia Sofia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.25

Slavia Sofia

1.13

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 138 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.15

Slavia Sofia

1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.25

Slavia Sofia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

67%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Slavia Sofia

72%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

61%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

17%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

71%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

13%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

68%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

31%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

54%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

39%

level

28%

Slavia Sofia scores more

33%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff