Slavia Sofia 1–1 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arda Kardzhali

8/30/2024

First League · Round 7Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Slavia Sofia40%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.04

Slavia Sofia

1.21

Arda Kardzhali

1.04

Slavia Sofia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 120 away

1.24

creates per match

0.99

1.10

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.24

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.10

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

69%

Slavia Sofia or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

60%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

17%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

70%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

34%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

12%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

65%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

28%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

56%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

40%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

31%

Slavia Sofia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff