Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Arda Kardzhali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Sofia

2/14/2026

First League · Round 21Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali45%

×Draw27%

Slavia Sofia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Arda Kardzhali

1.40

Slavia Sofia

1.06

Arda Kardzhali creates 32% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 138 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Slavia Sofia

1.00

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Slavia Sofia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

71%

Arda Kardzhali or Slavia Sofia

73%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

55%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

21%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

75%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

41%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

17%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

65%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

29%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

61%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

45%

level

27%

Slavia Sofia scores more

29%

Arda Kardzhali at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff