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Slavia Sofia II vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
4 – 2
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
3/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 1Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavia Sofia II58%
×Draw21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
2.16
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.26

Slavia Sofia II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 78 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
78%
Slavia Sofia II or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
79%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
42%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
35%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
88%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
63%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
36%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
72%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
36%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
73%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.16

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
58%
level
21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
22%

Slavia Sofia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slavia Sofia II 4–2 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Slavia Sofia II beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 4-2 in Third League - Southwest on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.