Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
3 – 2
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
4/29/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 7Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi45%
×Draw24%
Slavia Sofia II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.67
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
69%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Slavia Sofia II
76%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
55%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
24%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
81%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
50%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
38%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
60%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
45%
level
24%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
31%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Slavia Sofia II

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Slavia Sofia II 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.