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Slavia Sofia II vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
4 – 2
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
5/6/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 8Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavia Sofia II64%
×Draw19%
Granit Vladaya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
2.29
Granit Vladaya
1.08

Slavia Sofia II creates 112% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
83%
Slavia Sofia II or Granit Vladaya
81%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
36%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
41%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
90%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
66%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
40%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
66%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
29%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
79%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.29

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
64%
level
19%
Granit Vladaya scores more
17%

Slavia Sofia II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia II vs Granit Vladaya

Slavia Sofia II beat Granit Vladaya 4-2 in Third League - Southwest on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.