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Granit Vladaya vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
0 – 1
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
3/30/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 2Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya40%
×Draw24%
Slavia Sofia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.56
Slavia Sofia II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
64%
Granit Vladaya or Slavia Sofia II
76%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
60%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
20%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
79%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
46%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
21%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
77%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
43%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
53%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.56

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
40%
level
24%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
36%

Granit Vladaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Slavia Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II beat Granit Vladaya 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.