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Slavia Sofia II vs CSKA Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
1 – 2
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
8/26/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 5Slavija pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slavia Sofia II44%
×Draw24%
CSKA Sofia II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
1.69
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

Slavia Sofia II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
67%
Slavia Sofia II or CSKA Sofia II
76%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
56%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
23%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
82%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
50%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
24%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
76%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
42%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
57%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
44%
level
24%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
33%

Slavia Sofia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia II vs CSKA Sofia II

CSKA Sofia II beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Slavija pomoshten teren in Sofia.