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CSKA Sofia II vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
2 – 1
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
3/9/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II61%
×Draw21%
Slavia Sofia II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
2.07
Slavia Sofia II
1.04

CSKA Sofia II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
82%
CSKA Sofia II or Slavia Sofia II
79%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
39%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
37%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
87%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
61%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
34%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
28%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
77%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.07

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
61%
level
21%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
18%

CSKA Sofia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Sofia II vs Slavia Sofia II

CSKA Sofia II beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.