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Slavia Praha W vs Olimpia Cluj W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
10/11/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundFortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slavia Praha W44%
×Draw21%
Olimpia Cluj W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha W
2.04
Olimpia Cluj W
1.81

Slavia Praha W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha W
1.07
Olimpia Cluj W
1.33

allows per match

Slavia Praha W
2.29
Olimpia Cluj W
3.00

finishing

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par
Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Slavia Praha W or draw
65%
Slavia Praha W or Olimpia Cluj W
79%
Draw or Olimpia Cluj W
56%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
25%
Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
87%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
60%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
33%
Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
84%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
54%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
56%
Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha W attack 1.07 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Olimpia Cluj W attack 1.33 + Slavia Praha W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Praha W scores more
44%
level
21%
Olimpia Cluj W scores more
35%

Slavia Praha W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Slavia Praha W 5–0 Olimpia Cluj W

Slavia Praha W beat Olimpia Cluj W 5-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 11, 2023.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.