Olimpia Cluj W 0–6 Slavia Praha W: Result & Stats

Olimpia Cluj W

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Slavia Praha W

10/18/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundCluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpia Cluj W29%

×Draw22%

Slavia Praha W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia Cluj WExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

Olimpia Cluj W

1.50

Slavia Praha W

2.00

Slavia Praha W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.38

2.63

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Olimpia Cluj W

1.38

Slavia Praha W

1.38

allows per match

Olimpia Cluj W

2.63

Slavia Praha W

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Cluj W ↓

Slavia Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Olimpia Cluj W or draw

51%

Olimpia Cluj W or Slavia Praha W

78%

Draw or Slavia Praha W

71%

Winning margin

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

13%

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

78%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

44%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

19%

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals

86%

Slavia Praha W 2+ goals

59%

Slavia Praha W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

37%

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Cluj W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Cluj W attack 1.38 + Slavia Praha W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slavia Praha W attack 1.38 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

29%

level

22%

Slavia Praha W scores more

49%

Slavia Praha W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff