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Slavia Praha W vs Hibernian W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hibernian W
Hibernian W
9/25/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsSinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slavia Praha W35%
×Draw21%
Hibernian W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha W
1.79
Hibernian W
2.02

Hibernian W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha W
1.07
Hibernian W
1.75

allows per match

Slavia Praha W
2.29
Hibernian W
2.50

finishing

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par
Hibernian W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha W ↓

Hibernian W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Slavia Praha W or draw
56%
Slavia Praha W or Hibernian W
79%
Draw or Hibernian W
65%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
18%
Hibernian W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
83%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
53%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
26%
Hibernian W 1+ goals
87%
Hibernian W 2+ goals
60%
Hibernian W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
44%
Hibernian W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Hibernian W away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha W attack 1.07 + Hibernian W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hibernian W attack 1.75 + Slavia Praha W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Praha W scores more
35%
level
21%
Hibernian W scores more
44%

Hibernian W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hibernian W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Slavia Praha W 5–1 Hibernian W

Slavia Praha W beat Hibernian W 5-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.