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Hibernian W vs Slavia Praha W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Hibernian W
Hibernian W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
9/11/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hibernian W45%
×Draw23%
Slavia Praha W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian W
1.81
Slavia Praha W
1.52

Hibernian W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hibernian W
2.00
Slavia Praha W
1.38

allows per match

Hibernian W
1.67
Slavia Praha W
1.62

finishing

Hibernian W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hibernian W or draw
67%
Hibernian W or Slavia Praha W
77%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
55%

Winning margin

Hibernian W wins by 2+
24%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hibernian W 1+ goals
84%
Hibernian W 2+ goals
54%
Hibernian W 3+ goals
27%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
78%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
45%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hibernian W (draw refunded)
58%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian W attack 2.00 + Slavia Praha W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Slavia Praha W attack 1.38 + Hibernian W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hibernian W scores more
45%
level
23%
Slavia Praha W scores more
33%

Hibernian W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hibernian W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hibernian W vs Slavia Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Hibernian W 4-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.