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Slavia Praha vs Příbram — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Příbram
Příbram
T. Souček 73', 63' (pen)
M. Kodr 68' (OG)
M. Škoda 31'
10/19/2019Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 13Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Slavia Praha80%
×Draw14%
Příbram6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.40
Příbram
0.49

Slavia Praha creates 390% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 35 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.65
Příbram
0.51

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.47
Příbram
2.14

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Příbram+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Příbram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
94%
Slavia Praha or Příbram
86%
Draw or Příbram
20%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
57%
Příbram wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
91%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
69%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
42%
Příbram 1+ goals
39%
Příbram 2+ goals
9%
Příbram 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
93%
Příbram (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Příbram away — creates 0.51, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Příbram defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.40

Příbram attack 0.51 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
80%
level
14%
Příbram scores more
6%

Slavia Praha at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Ondřej Kúdela
31'
M. Škoda
40'
Mihailo Cmiljanovic
54'
N. Stanciu← L. Provod
61'
S. Tecl← M. Škoda
63'
T. SoučekPenalty
68'
M. KodrOwn goal
70'
P. Hajek← D. Kříž
73'
T. Souček
74'
F. Stuparević← M. Škoda
79'
M. van Buren← L. Masopust
85'
Soufiane Dramé
87'
D. Šimek← S. Dramé

Statistics

SlaviaPříbram
Overview
12Corners4
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 3–1 Příbram

Slavia Praha beat Příbram 3-1 in Czech Liga on October 19, 2019.

Goals: M. Škoda (31'), T. Souček (63' pen, 73'), M. Kodr (68' o.g.).

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.