Příbram 0–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Příbram

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

6/2/2020

Czech Liga · Round 27Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Příbram19%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PříbramExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.67

Příbram

0.84

Slavia Praha

1.67

Slavia Praha creates 99% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 121 away

0.83

creates per match

1.95

1.40

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Příbram

0.83

Slavia Praha

1.95

allows per match

Příbram

1.40

Slavia Praha

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Příbram or draw

43%

Příbram or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

81%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+

6%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals

57%

Příbram 2+ goals

21%

Příbram 3+ goals

5%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

81%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

50%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)

25%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 0.83 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Slavia Praha attack 1.95 + Příbram defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Příbram scores more

19%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

57%

Slavia Praha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff