Slavia Praha 4–1 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lask Linz

I. Traoré 85'

P. Olayinka 82'

Y. Sor 29', 3'

H. Balić 67'

3/10/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha57%

×Draw21%

Lask Linz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.20

Slavia Praha

2.06

Lask Linz

1.20

Slavia Praha creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.45

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.45

Lask Linz

1.22

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.18

Lask Linz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

78%

Slavia Praha or Lask Linz

79%

Draw or Lask Linz

43%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

34%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

61%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

34%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

70%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

34%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.45 + Lask Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lask Linz attack 1.22 + Slavia Praha defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

57%

level

21%

Lask Linz scores more

22%

Slavia Praha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Plavšić

Slavia Praha · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

Y. Sor↳ A. Bah

29'

Y. Sor↳ M. Madsen

33'

39'

46'

54'

57'

61'

A. Schmidt← F. Flecker

67'

H. Balić

70'

S. Tecl← Y. Sor

81'

K. Nakamura← H. Balić

81'

F. Twardzik← P. Wiesinger

82'

L. Masopust← M. Pudil

82'

P. Olayinka

85'

I. Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaLask

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots9

3Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

9On Target3

7Off Target1

1Blocked5

15Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

446Total Passes395

284Accurate Passes220

64%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Slavia Praha 4–1 Lask Linz

Slavia Praha beat Lask Linz 4-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 10, 2022.

Goals: Y. Sor (3', 29'), H. Balić (67'), P. Olayinka (82'), I. Traoré (85').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Lask Linz — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Slavia Praha 4–1 Lask Linz