Lask Linz 4–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Lask Linz

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Slavia Praha

A. Schmidt 89'

A. Gruber 88'

P. Wiesinger 76', 36'

Y. Sor 62'

A. Bah 37'

P. Olayinka 24'

3/17/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16NV ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lask Linz52%

×Draw22%

Slavia Praha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask LinzExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.29

Lask Linz

1.90

Slavia Praha

1.29

Lask Linz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.22

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Lask Linz

2.22

Slavia Praha

1.58

allows per match

Lask Linz

1.00

Slavia Praha

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw

74%

Lask Linz or Slavia Praha

78%

Draw or Slavia Praha

48%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals

85%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

56%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

29%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

72%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

37%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

66%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 2.22 + Slavia Praha defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slavia Praha attack 1.58 + Lask Linz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lask Linz scores more

52%

level

22%

Slavia Praha scores more

26%

Lask Linz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Y. Sor

Slavia Praha · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

Philipp Wiesinger

24'

P. Olayinka↳ O. Lingr

28'

Ondrej Lingr

35'

Aiham Ousou

36'

P. Wiesinger

37'

A. Bah↳ Y. Sor

39'

Sascha Horvath

42'

Aiham Ousou

42'

Aiham Ousou

46'

K. Nakamura← T. Goiginger

46'

A. Schmidt← F. Flecker

53'

57'

62'

67'

72'

76'

P. Wiesinger↳ R. Renner

77'

L. Masopust← O. Lingr

80'

Hong Hyeon-seok← P. Michorl

80'

S. Tecl← I. Schranz

84'

O. Kúdela← P. Olayinka

85'

Srđan Plavšić

88'

A. Gruber↳ Hong Hyeon-seok

89'

A. Schmidt↳ M. Potzmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LaskSlavia

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots5

3Corners1

20Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots5

11On Target4

3Off Target1

3Blocked0

10Inside Box4

7Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

414Total Passes380

322Accurate Passes278

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

20Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

2Offsides2