Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slavia Praha vs Karviná — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karviná
Karviná
9/13/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 8Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Slavia Praha72%
×Draw18%
Karviná11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.25
Karviná
0.73

Slavia Praha creates 208% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 103 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.65
Karviná
1.00

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.47
Karviná
1.85

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Karviná+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Karviná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
89%
Slavia Praha or Karviná
82%
Draw or Karviná
28%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
48%
Karviná wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
89%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
65%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
39%
Karviná 1+ goals
52%
Karviná 2+ goals
17%
Karviná 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
87%
Karviná (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Karviná defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.25

Karviná attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
72%
level
18%
Karviná scores more
11%

Slavia Praha at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 3–1 Karviná

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 3-1 in Czech Liga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Prague.