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Slavia Praha vs Karviná — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karviná
Karviná
11/10/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 15Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slavia Praha75%
×Draw15%
Karviná10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.76
Karviná
0.93

Slavia Praha creates 197% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.81
Karviná
1.13

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.74
Karviná
2.71

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.27scores more
Karviná+0.67scores more

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Karviná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
90%
Slavia Praha or Karviná
85%
Draw or Karviná
25%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
54%
Karviná wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
94%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
51%
Karviná 1+ goals
61%
Karviná 2+ goals
24%
Karviná 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
88%
Karviná (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.81, concedes 0.74 · 25 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.81 + Karviná defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.76

Karviná attack 1.13 + Slavia Praha defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
75%
level
15%
Karviná scores more
10%

Slavia Praha at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Karviná

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 5-1 in Czech Liga on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.