Slavia Praha 5–1 Karviná: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Karviná

C. Wallem 76' (pen)

M. Chytil 70'

V. Jurečka 43' (pen)

M. Jurásek 38'

M. Tijani 13'

A. Akinyemi 6'

9/3/2023

Czech Liga · Round 7Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slavia Praha74%

×Draw15%

Karviná11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchKarviná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

0.96

Slavia Praha

2.73

Karviná

0.96

Slavia Praha creates 184% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

2.76

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.76

Karviná

1.13

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.80

Karviná

2.71

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.03on par

Karviná+0.67scores more

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Karviná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

89%

Slavia Praha or Karviná

85%

Draw or Karviná

26%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

53%

Karviná wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

93%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

75%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

50%

Karviná 1+ goals

62%

Karviná 2+ goals

25%

Karviná 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

87%

Karviná (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.80 · 19 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.76 + Karviná defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.73

Karviná attack 1.13 + Slavia Praha defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

74%

level

15%

Karviná scores more

11%

Slavia Praha at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Wallem

Slavia Praha · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

A. Akinyemi↳ P. Čavoš

13'

M. Tijani

18'

Lukáš Masopust

26'

D. Soukeník← R. Mikuš

32'

Amar Memić

38'

M. Jurásek↳ J. Bořil

42'

Václav JurečkaPenalty confirmed

43'

V. JurečkaPenalty

46'

53'

60'

61'

65'

69'

B. Ogungbayi← M. Jurásek

69'

M. Chytil← M. Tijani

70'

M. Chytil↳ C. Wallem

72'

Jiří Bederka

74'

M. Doležal← A. Akinyemi

74'

A. Ražnatović← D. Bartl

76'

C. WallemPenalty

77'

J. Hromada← C. Wallem

78'

Jaroslav Svozil

84'

M. van Buren← C. Zafeiris

88'

Jan Bořil

90+1'

Bolu Ogungbayi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaKarviná

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots6

4.88Expected Goals (xG)0.63

9Corners5

15Fouls20

Shots

23Total Shots6

11On Target3

9Off Target1

3Blocked2

18Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

391Total Passes219

312Accurate Passes141

80%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls20

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Karviná

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 5-1 in Czech Liga on September 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Akinyemi (6'), M. Tijani (13'), M. Jurásek (38'), V. Jurečka (43' pen), M. Chytil (70'), C. Wallem (76' pen).

Slavia Praha controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Karviná — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Karviná