Slavia Praha 1–3 Inter: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Inter

11/27/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 5Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slavia Praha25%

×Draw26%

Inter48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.46

Slavia Praha

0.97

Inter

1.46

Inter creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

0.82

creates per match

1.38

1.55

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Slavia Praha

0.82

Inter

1.38

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.55

Inter

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

52%

Slavia Praha or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

75%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

9%

Inter wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

62%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

25%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

7%

Inter 1+ goals

77%

Inter 2+ goals

43%

Inter 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

34%

Inter (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Inter away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 0.82 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Inter attack 1.38 + Slavia Praha defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

25%

level

26%

Inter scores more

48%

Inter at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff