Inter 3–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slavia Praha

L. Martinez 65', 30'

D. Dumfries 34'

9/30/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Inter58%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.74

Inter

1.61

Slavia Praha

0.74

Inter creates 118% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

0.45

1.04

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Inter

1.32

Slavia Praha

0.45

allows per match

Inter

1.04

Slavia Praha

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Inter or draw

83%

Inter or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

42%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

32%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

80%

Inter 2+ goals

48%

Inter 3+ goals

22%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

52%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

17%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

77%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.32 + Slavia Praha defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Slavia Praha attack 0.45 + Inter defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter scores more

58%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

17%

Inter at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

L. Martinez

34'

D. Dumfries↳ M. Thuram

46'

T. Chory← V. Kusej

46'

I. Schranz← M. Sadilek

48'

Yann Bisseck

49'

Y. Mbodji← D. Doudera

56'

Ivan Schranz

61'

Lautaro Martínez

65'

L. Martinez↳ A. Bastoni

66'

A. Bonny← M. Thuram

66'

N. Barella← P. Zielinski

66'

M. Akanji← Y. Bisseck

66'

F. Esposito← L. Martinez

70'

M. Cham← L. Provod

76'

M. Darmian← D. Dumfries

83'

M. Chytil← D. Hashioka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterSlavia

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots3

3.99Expected Goals (xG)0.11

5Corners0

13Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots3

6On Target1

8Off Target1

7Blocked1

14Inside Box1

7Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

558Total Passes420

493Accurate Passes351

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.10Goals Prevented0.10

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1