Slavia Praha 3–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

D. Twito 85' (OG)

N. Stanciu 36'

A. Sima 31'

12/3/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 5Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slavia Praha52%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.81

Slavia Praha

1.44

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.81

Slavia Praha creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.08

creates per match

0.70

0.92

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Slavia Praha

1.08

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.70

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.92

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

79%

Slavia Praha or Hapoel Beer Sheva

73%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

48%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

42%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

18%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

56%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

19%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

71%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.08 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 0.70 + Slavia Praha defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

52%

level

27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

21%

Slavia Praha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Masopust

Slavia Praha · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

21'

31'

36'

46'

I. Madmon← L. Bareiro

51'

David Keltjens

61'

J. Bořil← O. Dorley

61'

I. Shviro← G. Varenne

62'

T. Yosefi← S. Sallalich

64'

O. Lingr← N. Stanciu

69'

Tomer Yosefi

76'

R. Hatuel← Josué

80'

I. Traoré← P. Ševčík

81'

P. Musa← J. Kuchta

81'

L. Provod← L. Masopust

81'

N. Gamon← L. Taha

85'

D. TwitoOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaHapoel

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots3

2Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots3

7On Target0

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

640Total Passes255

569Accurate Passes182

89%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2