Hapoel Beer Sheva 3–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Praha

E. Acolatse 88', 86'

J. Agudelo 45'

L. Provod 75'

10/22/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 1Toto Turner Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva49%

×Draw23%

Slavia Praha28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.77

Slavia Praha

1.27

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.91

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.91

Slavia Praha

1.54

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.00

Slavia Praha

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

72%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Slavia Praha

77%

Draw or Slavia Praha

51%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

27%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

53%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

26%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

72%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

36%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

64%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.91 + Slavia Praha defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slavia Praha attack 1.54 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

49%

level

23%

Slavia Praha scores more

28%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Provod

Slavia Praha · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

45'

45'

46'

46'

N. Stanciu← I. Traoré

48'

Miguel Vitor

57'

L. Masopust← T. Malinský

57'

J. Kuchta← S. Tecl

70'

C. Meli← J. Agudelo

75'

O. Lingr← P. Ševčík

75'

L. Provod↳ N. Stanciu

79'

T. Yosefi← S. Sallalich

85'

86'

88'

89'

89'

G. Varenne← E. Acolatse

89'

A. Sima← O. Dorley

90'

Gaetan Varenne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HapoelSlavia

Overview

31%Possession69%

4Total Shots18

1Corners9

17Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots18

3On Target7

1Off Target5

0Blocked6

2Inside Box11

2Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

282Total Passes591

181Accurate Passes499

64%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4