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Slavia Praha vs Feyenoord — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Feyenoord
Feyenoordadvanced
I. Traoré 14'
L. Sinisterra 78'
C. Dessers 59', 2'
4/14/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsSinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slavia Praha46%
×Draw23%
Feyenoord31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
1.73
Feyenoord
1.39

Slavia Praha creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.45
Feyenoord
1.60

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.18
Feyenoord
1.00

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Feyenoord+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Feyenoord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
69%
Slavia Praha or Feyenoord
77%
Draw or Feyenoord
54%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
24%
Feyenoord wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
82%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
52%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
25%
Feyenoord 1+ goals
75%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
40%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
59%
Feyenoord (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.45 + Feyenoord defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Feyenoord attack 1.60 + Slavia Praha defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
46%
level
23%
Feyenoord scores more
31%

Slavia Praha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. SinisterraFeyenoordFeyenoord · F
8.0

Match Events

2'
C. Dessers
14'
I. Traoré
40'
Orkun Kökçü
55'
P. Wålemark← J. Toornstra
59'
C. Dessers
67'
J. Hendrix← R. Nelson
77'
P. Ševčík← A. Ousou
77'
S. Plavšić← I. Schranz
78'
L. Sinisterra↳ J. Hendrix
80'
Ibrahim Traoré
82'
D. Samek← O. Lingr
83'
B. Linssen← L. Sinisterra
83'
M. Pedersen← L. Geertruida
89'
S. Tecl← I. Traoré
90+4'
Taras Kacharaba

Possession

59%Slavia

Shots

19Slavia

Pass accuracy

53%Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaFeyenoord
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots12
7Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots12
4On Target6
10Off Target4
5Blocked2
13Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
410Total Passes296
313Accurate Passes197
76%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides3

UEFA Europa Conference League: Slavia Praha 1–3 Feyenoord

Feyenoord beat Slavia Praha 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 14, 2022.

Goals: C. Dessers (2', 59'), I. Traoré (14'), L. Sinisterra (78').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.