Slavia Praha 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen

P. Olayinka 80'

10/29/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 2Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slavia Praha34%

×Draw25%

Bayer Leverkusen42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.54

Slavia Praha

1.36

Bayer Leverkusen

1.54

Bayer Leverkusen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

2.22

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Slavia Praha

1.29

Bayer Leverkusen

2.22

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.86

Bayer Leverkusen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

58%

Slavia Praha or Bayer Leverkusen

75%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen

66%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

15%

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

39%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

16%

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

79%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

45%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

45%

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.29 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.22 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

34%

level

25%

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

42%

Bayer Leverkusen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Hrádecký

Bayer Leverkusen · G

7.9

Match Events

22'

Karim Bellarabi

46'

P. Musa← O. Lingr

46'

L. Bailey← L. Alario

59'

Lukas Provod

61'

N. Stanciu← T. Holeš

61'

P. Olayinka← O. Dorley

67'

68'

71'

71'

76'

76'

80'

P. Olayinka↳ N. Stanciu

90'

Ondrej Kolar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaBayer

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots10

1Corners3

20Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

8On Target1

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box2

7Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

471Total Passes465

387Accurate Passes365

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

20Fouls11

5Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3