Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slavia Praha

K. Bellarabi 90+1'

M. Diaby 59'

L. Bailey 32', 8'

12/10/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 6BayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen51%

×Draw23%

Slavia Praha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer LeverkusenExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.27

Bayer Leverkusen

1.86

Slavia Praha

1.27

Bayer Leverkusen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

2.11

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen

2.11

Slavia Praha

1.54

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen

1.00

Slavia Praha

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

74%

Bayer Leverkusen or Slavia Praha

77%

Draw or Slavia Praha

49%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

84%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

55%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

28%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

72%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

36%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

66%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.11 + Slavia Praha defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Slavia Praha attack 1.54 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

51%

level

23%

Slavia Praha scores more

26%

Bayer Leverkusen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Bailey

Bayer Leverkusen · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

L. Bailey↳ K. Bellarabi

19'

N. Stanciu← P. Ševčík

32'

L. Bailey

39'

Patrik Schick

46'

E. Gedikli← P. Schick

46'

M. Diaby← L. Bailey

53'

S. Tecl← P. Musa

59'

M. Diaby↳ D. Sinkgraven

62'

S. Onur← D. Sinkgraven

62'

L. Bender← J. Baumgartlinger

74'

C. Türkmen← N. Amiri

82'

O. Karafiát← I. Traoré

82'

T. Rigo← O. Lingr

82'

M. Jurásek← A. Sima

84'

Samed Onur

90+1'

K. Bellarabi↳ M. Diaby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayerSlavia

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots7

8Corners1

17Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target3

4Off Target4

7Blocked0

14Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

522Total Passes450

430Accurate Passes359

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2