Slavia Praha II 3–0 Loko Vltavín: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Loko Vltavín

3/17/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 18Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Slavia Praha II61%

×Draw20%

Loko Vltavín19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Praha IIExpected goals in this matchLoko Vltavín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.10

Slavia Praha II

2.16

Loko Vltavín

1.10

Slavia Praha II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 87 away

2.77

creates per match

1.23

0.97

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Slavia Praha II

2.77

Loko Vltavín

1.23

allows per match

Slavia Praha II

0.97

Loko Vltavín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Loko Vltavín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw

81%

Slavia Praha II or Loko Vltavín

80%

Draw or Loko Vltavín

39%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+

38%

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha II 2+ goals

63%

Slavia Praha II 3+ goals

36%

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals

67%

Loko Vltavín 2+ goals

30%

Loko Vltavín 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)

77%

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 2.77 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.16

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Slavia Praha II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more

61%

level

20%

Loko Vltavín scores more

19%

Slavia Praha II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff