Loko Vltavín 1–1 Slavia Praha II: Result & Stats

Loko Vltavín

FT

1 – 1

Slavia Praha II

8/7/2021

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 2Stadion na Plynárně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Loko Vltavín37%

×Draw23%

Slavia Praha II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loko VltavínExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.67

Loko Vltavín

1.62

Slavia Praha II

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 40 away

1.72

creates per match

2.13

1.22

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Loko Vltavín

1.72

Slavia Praha II

2.13

allows per match

Loko Vltavín

1.22

Slavia Praha II

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loko Vltavín ↓

Slavia Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Loko Vltavín or draw

61%

Loko Vltavín or Slavia Praha II

77%

Draw or Slavia Praha II

63%

Winning margin

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+

18%

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals

80%

Loko Vltavín 2+ goals

48%

Loko Vltavín 3+ goals

22%

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals

81%

Slavia Praha II 2+ goals

50%

Slavia Praha II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)

49%

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loko Vltavín at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 87 matches

Slavia Praha II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loko Vltavín attack 1.72 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.62

Slavia Praha II attack 2.13 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Loko Vltavín scores more

37%

level

23%

Slavia Praha II scores more

39%

Slavia Praha II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff