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Slavia Praha II vs České Budějovice II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
6/2/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 29Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Slavia Praha II60%
×Draw19%
České Budějovice II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha II
2.42
České Budějovice II
1.36

Slavia Praha II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 61 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha II
2.77
České Budějovice II
1.75

allows per match

Slavia Praha II
0.97
České Budějovice II
2.08

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw
79%
Slavia Praha II or České Budějovice II
81%
Draw or České Budějovice II
40%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
39%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
91%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
69%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
43%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
74%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
39%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
75%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 2.77 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.42

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Slavia Praha II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more
60%
level
19%
České Budějovice II scores more
21%

Slavia Praha II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha II vs České Budějovice II

Slavia Praha II beat České Budějovice II 5-4 in 3. liga - CFL A on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.